Backtesting and Forward Testing: The Importance of Correlation

Forex Simulator | Soft4FX forward test

Forex Simulator | Soft4FX forward test submitted by alialavipour to u/alialavipour [link] [comments]

Forex Simulator | Soft4FX forward test

Forex Simulator | Soft4FX forward test submitted by tikchart to u/tikchart [link] [comments]

Forex Megadroid Forward Test. Here is a live account statement for Forex MegaDroid: I am also running Forex MegaDroid off my VPS on an I-TradeFX account. Three trades to date on it all closed in profit:

submitted by zuljaalaa to reddit.com [link] [comments]

what’s the difference between backtesting and forward testing?

hey guys I’m starting to learn forex and would like to know what’s the difference between the two? I actually thought back testing is trading paper money and real money for forward testing.
submitted by username1231261994 to Forex [link] [comments]

How do you guys backtest a strategy?

I'm new to the forex trading and one of the advices that I often come across is to always backtest a strategy first.
First thing that came to mind is to just go through the chart and start moving forward, simulating a trade and logging if the strategy wins or loses. I actually did this in a 15M chart for a range of 3 months, and while the results were enlightening (my strategy sucked only 36% win rate for that pair and strategy), I found the process very tedious.
So my question is are there automated ways to back test a strategy? Like maybe excel or an application?
I was looking into mt5 and expert advisors the other day, and I tried the strategy tester using a free expert advisor. Should I create a script that mimics my strategy and test it using mt5? I have a bit of programming but I don't know where to start.
submitted by Ogre-kun to Forex [link] [comments]

My(21m) sister (27f) joined an mlm/ pyramid scheme cult called imarkets live academy and Im worried about her.

So my sister a month or two ago called me, as she occasionally will. We have a very good relationship, but Ill be honest in saying shes not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Not that shes necessarily stupid, but extremely gullible and easy to take advantage of. Shes into astrology, shit like The Secret, and easily gets sucked in by 'guru' like people. So onto the call, she calls and tells me about a new opportunity she thinks ill be into. She starts talking to me about Forex (foreign exchange trading) and how its the key to financial freedom and I could make a lot of money without really working. Now I know about forex and know that like stocks, it can be a viable way to invest and make money. However, the profits she was saying its possible to make just didnt pass the sniff test. And then she tells me I can learn how to do all of this by joining a class that, get this, is almost 300 dollars to enroll, and around 250 a month. She gets me on the phone with one of her friends telling me Ill be learning from the best and ill be making enough that the fees will look like nothing. I am skeptical throughout this whole thing, mind you. She then tells me that if I join i can also get people to join under me and get paid monthly for referrals. This is when my BS meter shot through the roof. Immediately i said " this sounds like a multi level marketing scam and Im not interested. If i want to learn to trade forex Ill learn from people who dont charge for the info and dont require me to recruit people". My sis was initially very pushy about it and told me shit like poor stands for passing over opportunities repeatedly. I told her that if something sounds too good to be true. Fast forward to now, and its almost the only thing my sister posts about on social media. Shes constantly advertising about and does these intsagram live things talking about it. I decide to listen to some of it. Despite being around trading forex, barely any of it is talking about trading. Its all motivational nonsense, about being your own boss and manifesting wealth, gaining financial independence. Worse, a lot of it talks about this being a "family". I find out the class is called imarkets live academy and is known on the internet as a pyramid scheme and as cult like. Everyone whos in it flaunts fake luxury lifestyles and pushes fake motivational crap. Im afraid for my sister, Im afraid that she'll get sucked in and spend all of her time recruiting for a bullshit company that doesnt give a fuck except for squeezing money out of vulnerable people, and that she'll end up losing all her money. They do copy paste trading and she doesnt know dick about the market, and one day shes gonna go all in and lose what little she has. The problem is once shes in something she wont listen to other people, and worse shes very charasmatic and socially abled and knows enough stupid people that she probably has recruited enough people that shes probably breaking even on the fees. And shes gonna keep going until it blows up in her face and it consumes her entire life. She was even going to come to my state for my 21st and didnt because she got invited to one of these conferences. I dont know how to convince her what shes doing is immoral and will blow up in her face, but i dont want her to feel like Im talking down to her or calling her stupid. Im just at a loss.
submitted by wolfshortman to antiMLM [link] [comments]

My girlfriend of 8 years admitted she cheated on me with a close friend (messy)

So, since I'm here I suppose I should give some backstory. This will probably get lengthy so ill put a tl;dr at the bottom.
I (M/23) started dating my (ex)girlfriend (We'll call her C; F/23) since sophomore year in high school. We were the textbook "high school sweethearts". Fast forward thru 6 years of good, bad and everything in between; having 2 two kids and dealing with a miscarriage, etc... we essentially were a married couple without the title, and we pretty much operated as such. (ironically enough i was planning on proposing to her the week after d-day..)
Now the last year or so me and C had been hanging out with one of my close friends (we'll call him J) and his girlfriend (S); who also have two kids together. Me and J had known each other for years, but hadn't talked much recently so it was cool to catch up; and S and my girlfriend C became friends quickly, as well as our children. At this point we are like family to each other, we went on vacations together, playdates, babysat for each other etc.
Now, the past few months before d-day, C started to show telltale signs of cheating (now that I look back).. but due to the fact that she has severe bipolar disorder which she is prescribed medication for (but she did not take it regularly), it was hard for me to fully gauge what was going on; because manic depressive episodes can exhibit wild symptoms that eerily align with cheating behavior (i know, i pick em great right). So I was concerned; but moreso for her mental well being, than for what I was about to discover in the near future.
Here's where things get hairy.
(D-Day) So I get ready leave the house to do uber eats. I do this part time to pay the bills, I've been learning to trade forex for the last few months so I needed something that could free up time. Anyway, before I leave C asks me for a kiss, I kiss her and the kids and then I head out... No less than 20 minutes after I left, I check my phone and see a string of messages from C, and then I get a call from her. When I answer the phone she's already crying. She tells me that about two months ago her and J fucked. She tells me that J told her I would run off and fuck other girls and meet up with them on some dating app on my phone. None of which is true, for the record. He essentially fed her a bunch of bullshit, and she blindly accepted it as truth. She claims she fucked him to get "revenge" at me for everything I ever "did" (even though as far as infidelity goes, I did nothing). C destroyed our relationship, family, and her friendship with S, all off of hearsay. J helped mastermind it all, and also destroyed our friendship, along with his relationship with S. Worst part is, I was hitting J up the 2 weeks before D-Day to chill, and he wouldn't even respond. Making me look like an even bigger clown. I reacted in pure rage, said some things I probably shouldn't have in the heat of the moment, and then told her to get her shit out of my house.
She of course at this point is hysterical and is screaming through tears for me to not leave her, that she wants to save our family, that it only happened once and there was no feelings involved beyond her trying to get back at me. At this point though I just don't know if I can believe it. both C and J disrespected me to the ABSOLUTE highest level, not only me but also S. They orchestrated a whole plan to make it happen and then hid it for 2 months. She did also come to me and admit it on her own. Not that that excuses it AT ALL, but my thinking is, in reality I could've found out in worse ways than her direct admission.
I'm so torn here reddit. I love this girl to death, and want nothing more than to save our family. I grew up in a split home and i saw and heard things I shouldn't have, and i remember the depression i went through during that time.. i dont want that for my kids..
BUT I also know that I've NEVER been betrayed like this before in my life, not only by an SO but a friend as well. I'm completely heartbroken, and I've had hurt in the past but I've never felt true heartbreak like I do right now. Im doing my best to avoid contacting her, but we have two kids so it makes it really hard at times.. ive been learning to focus on me, but I have to literally keep my mind preoccupied 110% of the time, or I start to go into the same thought loops about this whole situation :(.
Do I give the love of my life a second chance after something like this? For the sake of my family? I know I have zero trust for her, and i understand that if we EVER were to rekindle something in the future, it will be a long time, if ever before the pain goes away. it will not be the same as before, we will be starting from scratch. I just would like advice on if there's anything worth saving or not.
If so, what signs should I be looking for thats shes actually invested in making things right?
If not, how do i start this healing process and begin to move on from an 8 year investment and a now dysfunctional family? Because I'm so fucking lost right now guys.
Thanks for reading all the way to the end, I dropped tears writing this and any advice is appreciated.
**UPDATE 9/20
C is out out the house now. Ironically she's already moved into a new apartment. I'm not dumb and I know 9 times out of 10 you don't just find an new apartment in a single day.. maybe my paranoia but probably not honestly. Ive been avoiding contact with her beyond child related things.
I tried to contact S, but Ironically her phone was broken in the fight her and J had... she tried to message me on Facebook the night I found out to help her move her daughter dressed into a storage unit, but I was physically weak and couldn't even think of what to say in response at that time. Not that she did anything wrong at all. At this point S has removed herself from Facebook so I'm trying to figure out another way to get ahold of her to try to get extra insight. Will post another update if/when I get more details.
C tried to "shit test" me today, and since we're now apart i could see it blind as day. She FaceTimed me, I normally would've ignored but i can see my daughter on the preview so i answer. C claims the kids wanted to talk to me, but they seemed relatively uninterested when I tried. Which no big deal, but its what came next that was so weird. What im talking about is her making a comment on a new vape i just got. How it was "so cool" and she wanted to see me take a drag off it again. This is significant only because I KNOW from being with her for 8 years that it turns her on to see me do smoke tricks. That's just always been her. On top of that, she kept taking the camera off the kids, and trying to talk to me about things that happened in her day indirectly. I kept it brief and told her i was busy before she could drag it on.. WHY IS SHE DOING THIS? This is fucking with my head even more now..
ALSO today I was working on music and I went into my downloads folder and noticed something called "J's App". Its date modified is 8/11. This lines up with the timeline C gave me which made me sick to my stomach. I open it, fully prepared to find some type of cynical cheating app they were using to sneak around on me with...
Turns out its an application for some ged boot camp for high-school drop outs. This girl had the NERVE to let this fucking bum use my laptop to apply for this shit?! I now certainly question the length of their relationship and the details behind it. For now, im going to continue with space and avoiding contact but I will be sitting down with C next week to lay everything on the table. Full truths, full openness, adult discussion no kid games. At that point ill either have closure to know the truth (or as much as I can get of it), or know if there's any chance of redemption, which at this point has went from 25% to 5%.
Thank you all sooo much for your advice and support during this; Alot of hard pills to swallow right now but its what I need. You guys are foreal a family to me and I will be here to support anyone here, new or old thats ever had to feel the way i feel right now.
Tl;dr my girlfriend of 8 years and mother of my 2 kids had an ONS with my friend, who is(was) dating her best friend. Now she wants to work things out
submitted by iknowalotaboutdrugs to survivinginfidelity [link] [comments]

Some trading wisdom, tools and information I picked up along the way that helped me be a better trader. Maybe it can help you too.

Its a bit lengthy and I tried to condense it as much as I can. So take everything at a high level as each subject is has a lot more depth but fundamentally if you distill it down its just taking simple things and applying your experience using them to add nuance and better deploy them.
There are exceptions to everything that you will learn with experience or have already learned. If you know something extra or something to add to it to implement it better or more accurately. Then great! However, my intention of this post is just a high level overview. Trading can be far too nuanced to go into in this post and would take forever to type up every exception (not to mention the traders individual personality). If you take the general information as a starting point, hopefully you will learn the edge cases long the way and learn how to use the more effectively if you end up using them. I apologize in advice for any errors or typos.
Introduction After reflecting on my fun (cough) trading journey that was more akin to rolling around on broken glass and wondering if brown glass will help me predict market direction better than green glass. Buying a $100 indicator at 2 am when I was acting a fool, looking at it and going at and going "This is a piece of lagging crap, I miss out on a large part of the fundamental move and never using it for even one trade". All while struggling with massive over trading and bad habits because I would get bored watching a single well placed trade on fold for the day. Also, I wanted to get rich quick.
On top all of that I had a terminal Stage 4 case of FOMO on every time the price would move up and then down then back up. Just think about all those extra pips I could have trading both directions as it moves across the chart! I can just sell right when it goes down, then buy right before it goes up again. Its so easy right? Well, turns out it was not as easy as I thought and I lost a fair chunk of change and hit my head against the wall a lot until it clicked. Which is how I came up with a mixed bag of things that I now call "Trade the Trade" which helped support how I wanted to trade so I can still trade intra day price action like a rabid money without throwing away all my bananas.
Why Make This Post? - Core Topic of Discussion I wish to share a concept I came up with that helped me become a reliable trader. Support the weakness of how I like to trade. Also, explaining what I do helps reinforce my understanding of the information I share as I have to put words to it and not just use internalized processes. I came up with a method that helped me get my head straight when trading intra day.
I call it "Trade the Trade" as I am making mini trades inside of a trade setup I make from analysis on a higher timeframe that would take multiple days to unfold or longer. I will share information, principles, techniques I used and learned from others I talked to on the internet (mixed bag of folks from armatures to professionals, and random internet people) that helped me form a trading style that worked for me. Even people who are not good at trading can say something that might make it click in your head so I would absorbed all the information I could get.I will share the details of how I approach the methodology and the tools in my trading belt that I picked up by filtering through many tools, indicators strategies and witchcraft. Hopefully you read something that ends up helping you be a better trader. I learned a lot from people who make community posts so I wanted to give back now that I got my ducks in a row.
General Trading Advice If your struggling finding your own trading style, fixing weakness's in it, getting started, being reliably profitable or have no framework to build yourself higher with, hopefully you can use the below advice to help provide some direction or clarity to moving forward to be a better trader.
  1. KEEP IT SIMPLE. Do not throw a million things on your chart from the get go or over analyzing what the market is doing while trying to learn the basics. Tons of stuff on your chart can actually slow your learning by distracting your focus on all your bells and whistles and not the price action.
  2. PRICE ACTION. Learn how to read price action. Not just the common formations, but larger groups of bars that form the market structure. Those formations carry more weight the higher the time frame they form on. If struggle to understand what is going on or what your looking at, move to a higher time frame.
  3. INDICATORS. If you do use them you should try to understand how every indicator you use calculates its values. Many indicators are lagging indicators, understanding how it calculates the values can help you learn how to identify the market structure before the indicator would trigger a signal . This will help you understand why the signal is a lagged signal. If you understand that you can easily learn to look at the price action right before the signal and learn to watch for that price action on top of it almost trigging a signal so you can get in at a better position and assume less downside risk. I recommend using no more than 1-2 indicators for simplicity, but your free to use as many as you think you think you need or works for your strategy/trading style.
  4. PSYCOLOGY. First, FOMO is real, don't feed the beast. When you trade you should always have an entry and exit. If you miss your entry do not chase it, wait for a new entry. At its core trading is gambling and your looking for an edge against the house (the other market participants). With that in mind, treat as such. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. If you are afraid to lose it will negatively effect your trade decisions. Finally, be honest with your self and bad trading happens. No one is going to play trade cop and keep you in line, that's your job.
  5. TRADE DECISION MARKING: Before you enter any trade you should have an entry and exit area. As you learn price action you will get better entries and better exits. Use a larger zone and stop loss at the start while learning. Then you can tighten it up as you gain experience. If you do not have a area you wish to exit, or you are entering because "the markets looking like its gonna go up". Do not enter the trade. Have a reason for everything you do, if you cannot logically explain why then you probably should not be doing it.
  6. ROBOTS/ALGOS: Loved by some, hated by many who lost it all to one, and surrounded by scams on the internet. If you make your own, find a legit one that works and paid for it or lost it all on a crappy one, more power to ya. I do not use robots because I do not like having a robot in control of my money. There is too many edge cases for me to be ok with it.However, the best piece of advice about algos was that the guy had a algo/robot for each market condition (trending/ranging) and would make personalized versions of each for currency pairs as each one has its own personality and can make the same type of movement along side another currency pair but the price action can look way different or the move can be lagged or leading. So whenever he does his own analysis and he sees a trend, he turns the trend trading robot on. If the trend stops, and it starts to range he turns the range trading robot on. He uses robots to trade the market types that he is bad at trading. For example, I suck at trend trading because I just suck at sitting on my hands and letting my trade do its thing.

Trade the Trade - The Methodology

Base Principles These are the base principles I use behind "Trade the Trade". Its called that because you are technically trading inside your larger high time frame trade as it hopefully goes as you have analyzed with the trade setup. It allows you to scratch that intraday trading itch, while not being blind to the bigger market at play. It can help make sense of why the price respects, rejects or flat out ignores support/resistance/pivots.
  1. Trade Setup: Find a trade setup using high level time frames (daily, 4hr, or 1hr time frames). The trade setup will be used as a base for starting to figure out a bias for the markets direction for that day.
  2. Indicator Data: Check any indicators you use (I use Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index) for any useful information on higher timeframes.
  3. Support Resistance: See if any support/resistance/pivot points are in currently being tested/resisted by the price. Also check for any that are within reach so they might become in play through out the day throughout the day (which can influence your bias at least until the price reaches it if it was already moving that direction from previous days/weeks price action).
  4. Currency Strength/Weakness: I use the TradeVision currency strength/weakness dashboard to see if the strength/weakness supports the narrative of my trade and as an early indicator when to keep a closer eye for signs of the price reversing.Without the tool, the same concept can be someone accomplished with fundamentals and checking for higher level trends and checking cross currency pairs for trends as well to indicate strength/weakness, ranging (and where it is in that range) or try to get some general bias from a higher level chart that may help you out. However, it wont help you intra day unless your monitoring the currency's index or a bunch of charts related to the currency.
  5. Watch For Trading Opportunities: Personally I make a mental short list and alerts on TradingView of currency pairs that are close to key levels and so I get a notification if it reaches there so I can check it out. I am not against trading both directions, I just try to trade my bias before the market tries to commit to a direction. Then if I get out of that trade I will scalp against the trend of the day and hold trades longer that are with it.Then when you see a opportunity assume the directional bias you made up earlier (unless the market solidly confirms with price action the direction while waiting for an entry) by trying to look for additional confirmation via indicators, price action on support/resistances etc on the low level time frame or higher level ones like hourly/4hr as the day goes on when the price reaches key areas or makes new market structures to get a good spot to enter a trade in the direction of your bias.Then enter your trade and use the market structures to determine how much of a stop you need. Once your in the trade just monitor it and watch the price action/indicators/tools you use to see if its at risk of going against you. If you really believe the market wont reach your TP and looks like its going to turn against you, then close the trade. Don't just hold on to it for principle and let it draw down on principle or the hope it does not hit your stop loss.
  6. Trade Duration Hold your trades as long or little as you want that fits your personality and trading style/trade analysis. Personally I do not hold trades past the end of the day (I do in some cases when a strong trend folds) and I do not hold trades over the weekends. My TP targets are always places I think it can reach within the day. Typically I try to be flat before I sleep and trade intra day price movements only. Just depends on the higher level outlook, I have to get in at really good prices for me to want to hold a trade and it has to be going strong. Then I will set a slightly aggressive stop on it before I leave. I do know several people that swing trade and hold trades for a long period of time. That is just not a trading style that works for me.
Enhance Your Success Rate Below is information I picked up over the years that helped me enhance my success rate with not only guessing intra day market bias (even if it has not broken into the trend for the day yet (aka pre London open when the end of Asia likes to act funny sometimes), but also with trading price action intra day.
People always say "When you enter a trade have an entry and exits. I am of the belief that most people do not have problem with the entry, its the exit. They either hold too long, or don't hold long enough. With the below tools, drawings, or instruments, hopefully you can increase your individual probability of a successful trade.
**P.S.*\* Your mileage will vary depending on your ability to correctly draw, implement and interpret the below items. They take time and practice to implement with a high degree of proficiency. If you have any questions about how to do that with anything listed, comment below and I will reply as I can. I don't want to answer the same question a million times in a pm.
Tools and Methods Used This is just a high level overview of what I use. Each one of the actions I could go way more in-depth on but I would be here for a week typing something up of I did that. So take the information as a base level understanding of how I use the method or tool. There is always nuance and edge cases that you learn from experience.
Conclusion
I use the above tools/indicators/resources/philosophy's to trade intra day price action that sometimes ends up as noise in the grand scheme of the markets movement.use that method until the price action for the day proves the bias assumption wrong. Also you can couple that with things like Stoch RSI + Relative Vigor Index to find divergences which can increase the probability of your targeted guesses.

Trade Example from Yesterday This is an example of a trade I took today and why I took it. I used the following core areas to make my trade decision.
It may seem like a lot of stuff to process on the fly while trying to figure out live price action but, for the fundamental bias for a pair should already baked in your mindset for any currency pair you trade. For the currency strength/weakness I stare at the dashboard 12-15 hours a day so I am always trying to keep a pulse on what's going or shifts so that's not really a factor when I want to enter as I would not look to enter if I felt the market was shifting against me. Then the higher timeframe analysis had already happened when I woke up, so it was a game of "Stare at the 5 min chart until the price does something interesting"
Trade Example: Today , I went long EUUSD long bias when I first looked at the chart after waking up around 9-10pm Eastern. Fortunately, the first large drop had already happened so I had a easy baseline price movement to work with. I then used tool for currency strength/weakness monitoring, Pivot Points, and bearish divergence detected using Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index.
I first noticed Bearish Divergence on the 1hr time frame using the Stochastic RSI and got confirmation intra day on the 5 min time frame with the Relative Vigor Index. I ended up buying the second mini dip around midnight Eastern because it was already dancing along the pivot point that the price had been dancing along since the big drop below the pivot point and dipped below it and then shortly closed back above it. I put a stop loss below the first large dip. With a TP goal of the middle point pivot line
Then I waited for confirmation or invalidation of my trade. I ended up getting confirmation with Bearish Divergence from the second large dip so I tightened up my stop to below that smaller drip and waited for the London open. Not only was it not a lower low, I could see the divergence with the Relative Vigor Index.
It then ran into London and kept going with tons of momentum. Blew past my TP target so I let it run to see where the momentum stopped. Ended up TP'ing at the Pivot Point support/resistance above the middle pivot line.
Random Note: The Asian session has its own unique price action characteristics that happen regularly enough that you can easily trade them when they happen with high degrees of success. It takes time to learn them all and confidently trade them as its happening. If you trade Asia you should learn to recognize them as they can fake you out if you do not understand what's going on.

TL;DR At the end of the day there is no magic solution that just works. You have to find out what works for you and then what people say works for them. Test it out and see if it works for you or if you can adapt it to work for you. If it does not work or your just not interested then ignore it.
At the end of the day, you have to use your brain to make correct trading decisions. Blindly following indicators may work sometimes in certain market conditions, but trading with information you don't understand can burn you just as easily as help you. Its like playing with fire. So, get out there and grind it out. It will either click or it wont. Not everyone has the mindset or is capable of changing to be a successful trader. Trading is gambling, you do all this work to get a edge on the house. Trading without the edge or an edge you understand how to use will only leave your broker happy in the end.
submitted by marcusrider to Forex [link] [comments]

My(21 m) sister (27 f) joined a mlm scam/ cult and I dont know how to approach her about it.

So my sister a month or two ago called me, as she occasionally will. We have a very good relationship, but Ill be honest in saying shes not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Not that shes necessarily stupid, but extremely gullible and easy to take advantage of. Shes into astrology, shit like The Secret, and easily gets sucked in by 'guru' like people. So onto the call, she calls and tells me about a new opportunity she thinks ill be into. She starts talking to me about Forex (foreign exchange trading) and how its the key to financial freedom and I could make a lot of money without really working. Now I know about forex and know that like stocks, it can be a viable way to invest and make money. However, the profits she was saying its possible to make just didnt pass the sniff test. And then she tells me I can learn how to do all of this by joining a class that, get this, is almost 300 dollars to enroll, and around 250 a month. She gets me on the phone with one of her friends telling me Ill be learning from the best and ill be making enough that the fees will look like nothing. I am skeptical throughout this whole thing, mind you. She then tells me that if I join i can also get people to join under me and get paid monthly for referrals. This is when my BS meter shot through the roof. Immediately i said " this sounds like a multi level marketing scam and Im not interested. If i want to learn to trade forex Ill learn from people who dont charge for the info and dont require me to recruit people". My sis was initially very pushy about it and told me shit like poor stands for passing over opportunities repeatedly. I told her that if something sounds too good to be true. Fast forward to now, and its almost the only thing my sister posts about on social media. Shes constantly advertising about and does these intsagram live things talking about it. I decide to listen to some of it. Despite being around trading forex, barely any of it is talking about trading. Its all motivational nonsense, about being your own boss and manifesting wealth, gaining financial independence. Worse, a lot of it talks about this being a "family". I find out the class is called imarkets live academy and is known on the internet as a pyramid scheme and as cult like. Everyone whos in it flaunts fake luxury lifestyles and pushes fake motivational crap. Im afraid for my sister, Im afraid that she'll get sucked in and spend all of her time recruiting for a bullshit company that doesnt give a fuck except for squeezing money out of vulnerable people, and that she'll end up losing all her money. They do copy paste trading and she doesnt know dick about the market, and one day shes gonna go all in and lose what little she has. The problem is once shes in something she wont listen to other people, and worse shes very charasmatic and socially abled and knows enough stupid people that she probably has recruited enough people that shes probably breaking even on the fees. And shes gonna keep going until it blows up in her face and it consumes her entire life. She was even going to come to my state for my 21st and didnt because she got invited to one of these conferences. I dont know how to convince her what shes doing is immoral and will blow up in her face, but i dont want her to feel like Im talking down to her or calling her stupid. Im just at a loss.
submitted by wolfshortman to relationship_advice [link] [comments]

The Truth

The Truth submitted by Mobilenewsflash to Forex [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Struggling with new strategy

Hello.
I am currently just about under a year in trading forex and I found a simple intraday strategy that I thought would work. Its just a simple ma cross and trendline break on the H1 and entry based on m15.
The thing that im struggling with is that everytime i backtested my strategy i would have a win rate of 60-70%. About 100-200 entries backtested across different pairs. Proceeded on forward testing for about a week and I would get about the same result. Proceeded with real account with 0.5% risk, very good result still. But when i go on my real account with 1% risk i would hit stop losses at a rate of 90%.
Would you guys have any idea why this is happening? Is it my psychology that comes into play or did i not do enough backtesting and demo testing?
Its getting frustrating. I would like to just be consistent and not be emotional when I trade.
Any input would help guys. Thanks in advance!
submitted by yougayorna to Forex [link] [comments]

Good backtest, bad forward test?

FOREX, DAILY
Backtesting my system last 7 years, 2000 trades. Data was split 75:25 in sample and out of sample, both profitable.
However, when forward testing the algo entered drawdown and is still on its way down.
What could be the reasons why?
submitted by BowsMind to algotrading [link] [comments]

Why is Forex so hard to trade with standard strategies?

Hi,
I ran backtests for these markets:
  1. Forex, EURUSD and USDCAD
  2. Metals - Gold, silver
  3. Crypto - BTCUSD, ETHUSD
  4. SP500
It almost poked into my eye that forex seems to change its behaviour randomly sometimes and became unsuitable for standard strategies - e.g. MA crossover, Keltner, BB after idk maybe mid 2019?
It has the tighest spreads & smallest commissions,swaps etc. but is not very consistent anymore, e.g. with crypto or SP500 I strategies work well in backtest and make a small profit in forward test but for forex, e.g. EURUSD you are in for major drawdowns and low winrates?
Where is all this losses money going, to ML? Are market makers just randomly pushing prices to collect commissions?
submitted by dodsen92 to algotrading [link] [comments]

Hands on or hands off

Hi all. I am in a very difficult psychologically situation. I have studied for 7 years to be a day trader. Stare at the charts all day, actively manage, bla bla bla. So here is my struggle.
Off the bat, my goal is to one day be a full time forex trader with no other source of income
Recently I started reading off levels. I go in for 10m per day (while on the crapper in the morning) set up 20-30 alerts on my phone, and then just enter blindly for 1.5 rr during the day. I get about 60% strike rate, more than enough to be popping champagne and living the life. I get about 3-4 setups per day. That is option 1.
Option 1 downside is eventually I get a short like gbpusd this Monday, where I got in for 4 pip stop and could have trailed it for 15RR!
Option 2 is active trading. Sitting at the desk, charting out, following news events, the works. Taking positions, trailing stops to lock profits, the stress that goes with it.
I should be happy with option 1 but it keeps feeling wrong. As if I am cheating. It cannot be this easy, can it? Furthermore, if I go full time to only trade 10 mins per say and make 2-3 R almost every day, what will I do the rest of the time? I am one of those guys raised with the "you have to work hard around the clock" mentality, and I know that does not apply to Forex and trading at all. Nevertheless, 10m per day just feels and sounds weird, and I can't shake the feeling I will get a slap in the face for it. But I backtested. I forward tested. I have been trading it in a micro account for 2 months and it checks out.
Reddit, what is your opinion. Option 1 laid back, or go back to the grinder and do option 2
Edit : correcting typo
View Poll
submitted by crypthon to Forex [link] [comments]

How To Start Trading Forex Reddit

How To Start Trading Forex Reddit

How to trade Forex and be profitable

Hello and thank you for being here again!
In this article I want to show you how I structure my operations by trading in the currency market. If it can give you ideas or help you in your process, the objective of this post will be more than fulfilled. I will try to be as clear and direct as possible. I'll go point by point:
Index
  • 1. How to trade
  • 2. Intraday or swing trading in Forex?
  • 3. Automatic or Manual Forex Trading
  • 4. Is analysis the key to Forex trading?
  • 5. Learn to create robust trading strategies
  • 6. Best Forex Trading Strategies
    • 6.1. Trading strategies with very simple entry and exit criteria
    • 6.2. Systems with a not very high number of operations or trades
    • 6.3. Strategies with a controlled return/risk
  • 7. Establish connection and disconnection rules for your systems
  • 8. Diversify in Forex
  • 9. What currencies to trade on Forex
  • 10. Why invest (only) in Forex
  • 11. Steps to trade
  • 12. How to start as a professional trader (without knowing how to program)
>>>Start trading with Plus500: open a free account

1. How to trade the Forex Market

Focusing on the basics and keeping it simple. Let me explain, you don't have to rely on hyper-complex strategies, use the software that PETA it and put it on the server next to your broker ... you don't have to be the best programmer, much less get dirty on the graphics of your platform to win money in Forex.
You need systems. The systems work. Results-oriented companies and work methods are systems-based. You should start applying and creating systems because they will allow you:
  • Know what you can expect (return and risk) in results.
  • Measure what you do .
  • Know when what you are applying is stopping working.
Yes, that sitting in front of the computer, looking and saying "I think EUR / USD is going to rise" is the most common thing, but the normal thing here is to lose money. You need winning strategies to start the fight.

2. Intraday or swing trading in Forex?

This question is an interesting question and I make a small indent if you are just starting out. Swing trading are operations that usually last several days and when we talk about intraday or day trading we refer to operations that are closed on the same day.
Well, which one then? Like everything in life, it depends (we are). You have to learn that there is no “best for all”. In my case I combine both operations because I dedicate myself full time to this, but if you are just starting out or are one of the people who get stressed out with trading, I recommend that you focus on swing trading.
As you consolidate here you can start to scale and seek to diversify by doing intraday. But again, this is just something that I recommend based on my own experience and from people I have known over the years.

3. Automatic or Manual Forex Trading

Not all automated Forex trading systems are a panacea, nor are all discretionary or manual systems bad. Stop looking at it like that, we're only talking about execution. This is precisely why I am opting for automated execution. We could talk at length about this and if you find it interesting I can dedicate an article just to it. But think that automation is just how strategy is carried out. Whether this is a winner or a loser is the basis of everything.
Automating a losing strategy does not make it a winner, it is only about applying strategies that are profitable and ensuring that they are executed in the best way (in manual we always cheat alone).

4. Is analysis the key to Forex trading?

Many people think that technical analysis is the key to beating the market and defend it to the last consequences. The same happens with those who think that the only way to make money in the foreign exchange market is through fundamental analysis.
So what really works? What really works and you can check. What good is it if you tell me that this or the other is the best method if you haven't even sat down to draw numbers. Many times it is not with what, but how. That is, they can be different valid methods if they are done well. But for this you need statistics of what you are doing.
>>>Recommended Forex Broker: Plus500 - Visit official website<<<

5. Learn to create robust trading strategies

Let's first see what a robust trading strategy is all about. As traders, we know what has happened in the past, but we don't know what will happen in the market tomorrow. That is why we need systems that are well adapted to changing market circumstances.
How can we know systems adapt well to alterations in the spread, prices ...? Simulating those alterations, something like simulating those conditions and seeing how they behave. There are different tests for this such as: Walk Forward test, Montecarlo, and Multimarket.
These tests give us an idea of ​​how robust our created trading system is and give us a reference. Be careful, I said reference, not absolute truth. Then we will test them, our goal is to leave as little space as possible to chance.

6. Best Forex Trading Strategies

You may be wondering how you are going to manage to create profitable strategies and start with all this. Calm down, there are tools for this, but the important thing here is that you know that the strategies that tend to be more stable over time and give better results are:

6.1. Trading strategies with very simple entry and exit criteria

The opposite of what you may have been told. The simpler our Forex trading systems are, the more likely they will continue to work overtime. I have seen this myself and I know it first hand.
Also, which is more likely to stop working, a system based on six indicators or a system based on one or two? That six indicators continue to give results for years and years is not easy. Instead, only one or two are more so. Still, trading systems should always be supervised.

6.2. Systems with a not very high number of operations or trades

Sometimes when we become obsessed with being in the market constantly making gazillions of trades, we are giving our broker money and taking it out of our pocket. More is not better in trading, better is better. This is about getting the most money with the least risk, not giving it to your broker.

6.3. Strategies with a controlled return/risk

You see a strategy, you look at its profit in the last months and years and you are already thinking about connecting it. Error, always look at the return associated with the drawdown. The drawdown of your system is, in short, the maximum consecutive drop it has had. Because it is important? Because if that fall has occurred in the past, it can happen again (and bigger, believe me). Now you may be thinking, what if this happens to me?
Next, I will explain it to you, but first an example of a system that meets all these characteristics (so you can see that it is simpler than it seems:
https://preview.redd.it/cozy880jl9v51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e14a68538372be8e7ae109d86cd7d132d60fa07
Here more statistics:
https://preview.redd.it/hh5m7saml9v51.jpg?width=997&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f1597e3b05350d6fca1ea68ef18004f4340e6a1a

7. Establish connection and disconnection rules for your systems

All methods of trading sound great. The problem is when they start to lose. Some tell you that you have to continue, that the system is the system… But what if the system is stopping working? After all, we live in a changing world and our money is not infinite.
The reality is that many people do not know how to determine when the system is failing or when this happens because they are applying it incorrectly. If you execute the strategies in an automated way you are already saving this, then what you need is a rule to deactivate your strategies at a certain point. To do this, it is enough to monitor them with platforms such as Bluefox or Myfxbook to know what the performance of each is.

8. Diversify in Forex

If we deactivate a Rubén strategy, we stop trading. Not if you activate another that has been doing it well. It is not about you running a Forex trading system or two, it is about having different systems: the best in real and a demo base created that you can include in your real account when you deactivate one because their performance has dropped.
You can diversify by you I frame (temporality time) on assets (currencies) or types of systems (trend, mean reversion ...).
The objective of diversifying is to seek a more stable return, many people do for this is to introduce many systems without more, if you do this you will achieve the opposite, you will be increasing the risk.

9. What currencies to trade on Forex

I recommend that you focus on the majors or major currency pairs, especially if your broker has a high spread, as it is usually lower on these. One of the advantages of automating is that you can scale your trading and do it in different currencies, diversifying as I said before. These are the assets that I have traded in recent months:
https://preview.redd.it/4myzmwlxl9v51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=7635d085d2b434e3d3da0420937c245b6cd21339
It starts with being profitable with a few (one or three assets) and as you evolve you can grow your portfolio.

10. Why invest (only) in Forex

I will not be the one to tell you that you should invest in Forex and not in another market. Each one belongs to his father and mother and has its good and not so good things. Of course, one thing is clear, wherever you do it, remember the power of specialization. There are traders who focus on one or two assets and they are profitable. In the end, that's what it's all about, isn't it?
This operation can be extrapolated to different assets such as raw materials, indices and cryptocurrencies. Yes, cryptocurrencies too. In fact, my operations are mainly based on currencies and cryptocurrencies (85% in the first group and 15% in the second). But I have to say that cryptocurrency trading has given me a pleasant surprise this year.
Again, if you are starting, do not do it with many assets or you will saturate yourself. Start step by step and diversify as you evolve. Jack of all trades, master of none.

11. Steps to trade Forex Reddit

If you've gotten this far, it may not be entirely clear to you how the hell I trade, then I'm going to summarize it in steps:
  1. I create statistically profitable trading strategies and verify through tests that they are robust.
  2. I put them on a demo account to make sure they work perfectly.
  3. Once they meet the requirements that I demand of them, I pass them to real.
  4. In real account, I manage my systems connecting and disconnecting them according to their performance (always under objective criteria).

12. How to start trading Forex Reddit as a professional trader (without knowing how to program)

But Rubén, I haven't studied computer science and I'm not particularly good at math. Don't worry if you don't know how to program, it is possible to do all this using tools that will do it for you. For years I have programmed my own systems myself and that's fine, but now I'm concentrating on managing them and getting the most out of them. Do not think that this is the robot that will make you earn millions of euros while you drink the gin and tonic on the beach.
We will read soon with new posts about trading, Forex, cryptocurrencies, platforms ...
Good luck!
To start trading, open an account on Plus500, one of the leading Forex brokers: Click Here
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

Day trading

I'll share with you my daily analysis starting next Monday.
My Startegy: I use Supply and Demand Zones for my entry and exit criteria.
Inspired by Sam Seidens trading approach, I continue to adjust it to my liking/where I see fit in my daily routine.
I trade mostly with USD pairs:
Asian: AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY.
Europe: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF.
America: USDCAD.
submitted by remonpilip to Forex [link] [comments]

CHFJPY 12h Long - Update

This was a trade I shared two days ago here. I know there are at least a couple of people in this community who are forward testing the same strategy I am using, so I thought sharing some setups and updates would help these people. I will obviously share both wins and losses, as the point of these threads isn't to brag, but to show what I'm looking at.
Here is the updated chart. As you can see, my 23.6% retracement order was filled, but price didn't go low enough to trigger my 38.2% retracement order. Once the market broke through the -38.2% extension level, I deleted the unfilled pending order and let the open position to run.
My target was the -61.8% extension level, or 115.496. If you have been following the threads about my backtesting, I went with the unextended target on this one because I feared the swing high could have provided resistance. Price made its way to my target and hit it a few minutes ago. Momentum seems to be building up, so I wouldn't be surprised if price will move to the extended target, but it happens.
The overall profit in terms of units of risk was 1.56. Your return in terms of percentage will depend on your risk management plan. In my personal account, I am comfortable with higher level of risk, so I would have risked a full 2% on this position. Since I only got partially filled, the trade would have net me 1.56% return.
Do let me know if these threads are useful or if they make me sound bigheaded
submitted by Vanguer to Forex [link] [comments]

Backtesting advise? Kinda stuck

Backtesting advise? Kinda stuck
Hello traders. I am kinda new with forex. Still studying baby pips and have watched some YT. I tried backtesting GBPUSD with a plan I come up with which I though not really that promising because of some flaw in it. I am backtesting with 200 USD just to make sure that the system works, and when I start with a live account I can re-create the plan with 200 USD and start compounding.

This is my plan for now:
  • 1 hr chart
  • Aroon Up/down
  • ATR 14, for SL and lot size
  • 2% risk per trade
  • 2 trade (1 with 1:1 RR, 1 w/o TP but close when Aroon crossed)
  • Let the trade (1:1 RR) run until it hits SL or TP
  • If the trade (1:1 RR) hit TP, the trade w/o tp should close on the next Aroon cross
Long
  • Aroon up reached max
  • Charts are above 50 ema
  • 50 ema is above 200 ema
Short
  • Aroon down reached max
  • Charts are below 50 ema
  • 50 ema is below 200 ema

The Results are:
  • No. of Trade : 300
  • Win Trade : 171
  • Lose Trade : 129
  • Winrate : 57%
  • Duration : 12 months
  • Total profit : 478.045%
  • Monthly profit : 39.837%
  • Highest Streak
  • Win : 11
  • Lose : 9

Progress
  • 14-Jan-19 : 200 USD
  • 7-Jan-20 : 1,156.09 USD

https://preview.redd.it/bzz7k1c92w451.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=26d52b8069135de85f6d17aa6a45080ee5153efd
From backtesting, I found:
  • Risk management need more evaluation, seems dangerous
  • need better exit indicator
  • Need trailing SL to lock profits
  • If the distance between both EMA is small, it tends to lose
  • If some of the previous bars (candlestick) are small, it tends to lose
  • need to consider the spreads
  • when balance reached 1000 USD, it is harder to grow, bigger losses
  • Lot sizes also killing the account
  • need to cut unnecessary losses, filter "flat" charts
  • need forward testing
Any advice on how to filter out the “flat charts” early? Most of the time these charts are the culprit to my losses. Or any other advice that I may need to know? Thank you
submitted by fadilke2 to Forex [link] [comments]

Next steps after finishing Trading and Machine Learning specialization

Hello everyone, I just finished a specialization entailing using google AI platform and Big Query ML to develop trading strategies as well as RL agents, yet I’ve only been able to do this on historical data, I was hoping someone who’s already been through all this could advise me on the next steps. I’m looking to now go ahead and create automated trading systems based on the models and Reinforcement learning agents I have learned to develop. The books and courses I have taken have lead me up to what seems to be everything other than actually connecting to a live demo account to go ahead and create an automated system to now play out the models and such. I’ve been using Quandl and Open AI gym, not sure how I transition my agent from a Gym environment to live trading on a demo account because all the books and courses I have taken seem to purposely avoid this step. I’m really looking to use RL for forex trading but I don’t know how I would connect systems to a MT4 GUI, so I was just hoping someone might be able to point me in the right direction about how I should go about connecting an API to my AI platform notebooks to test my models live. Any direction would be greatly appreciated thanks everyone, I’m really looking forward to getting started in the industry; if I can figure this last thing out I don’t think it will be a problem haha, but stuck till then!
submitted by Alien_Love_ to algotrading [link] [comments]

Price action strategies

Hi guys,
I've decided that I no longer want to trade with indicators as every time I put a system together, it fails when I forward test it. Because of this I want t try strictly price action trading. I've started by reading Naked Forex and a few strategies have caught my attention, specifically the kangaroo tail. I was wondering if anyone trades that system and if they had any resources they could share to help me develop it. I would also appreciate any other price action traders who could suggest viable strategies that I could research further.
Thanks for your help
submitted by ilovemooose to Forex [link] [comments]

POUND COULD HAVE TO COMPLETE A RETRACEMENT -1.44% ON GBP/USD 1.29 PIVOT POINT, BEFORE GOING FOR UPSIDE.

RSI OSCILLATOR ROLLING OFF OVERBOUGHT LEVELS, SIGNAL THAT STERLING HAS BUILT IN STRENGTH, ALSO GIVEN THE $DOLLAR SOFTNESS. HOWEVER, A RETRACEMENT OF -1.44% TESTING THE PIVOT POINT GBP/USD 1.29, COULD BE A POSSIBLE OUTCOME. RETRACEMENT WOULD BRING GBP/USD OFF OVERBOUGHT LEVELS, THEREFORE BECOMING A TECHNICAL REBOUND POINT, POSSIBLY AN ENTRY FOR LONG POSITION THAT CAN MOVE UP TO GBP/USD 1.35. CONSOLIDATION TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT AS THE FOREX MARKET AND TRADERS WOULD NEGOTIATE THE WAY FORWARD

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submitted by lucas8282 to STOCKMARKETNEWS [link] [comments]

NNFX Algo Forward Testing 6 months - Lessons learned NNF Algo Forward Testing Monday Trades NNFX ALGO Forward Testing Thursday Trades 061120 Forward Testing (Podcast Episode 42) - YouTube Forex System Forward Testing - NNFX Algorithm - YouTube NNF Algo Forward Test Wednesday Trades 051320

Walk Forward Analysis for Metatrader 4 is a very ... 80% of the time the generator used to create the strategy and after that for the rest 20, it was testing the strategy. And this first strategy actually showed a great profit. You can see the second one again shows a profit, even here was not really good in the 80%. And then here. And you see some strategies are actually losing. So this Out ... Final Thoughts on Forex Forward Testing. That is how you get started in Forex forward testing. It is a vital step in the trading process, so don't skip it. Most beginning traders will put all of their risk capital into a live account and trade it with no system. …and that is why most people blow out their accounts within the first few months. Be different and give yourself the best shot at ... Forward testing is similar to backtesting. The biggest difference is that forward testing analyzes real-time data instead of historical data. The general idea is that once you have a trading strategy that’s profitable in backtesting, you move on to forward test it. With forward testing, you simulate actual trading and test your strategy on a live market. Forward testing? Good day all! I am now at a point in my trading journey that i have found a strategy that i like, but now want to back test it. (i have already traded using the strategy but back testing gives confidence and piece of mind when you find yourself in a draw-down) Now, i have never back tested before and was hoping to be pointed into the right direction, i have heard of and looked ... Be sure to test it a few times with different data feeds before moving it into forward testing. Forex Backtesting Software Rankings. Testing Efficiency. Before I get into the rankings, I'll share with you my efficiency rankings. I measured the efficiency of each software in days of historical data tested, per minute of backtesting time. According to this measure, Soft 4X came out on top. But ... Another option is “forward testing“, which is using the strategy in Live Forex Trading. This approach might look attractive at first sight. However, the principal problem is that such testing can only be done in real time, and not any faster. To say nothing of the cost incurred, of course. Forward testing the EA-a FREE** 1M TF EA Platform Tech. Hi there! the one thread started by me was an EA Giving 2000pips results within two weeks, the thread title was "Forward testing EA, result in two weeks. Forex strategy testing software for manual and automated trading. Strategy Tester. C++ strategies. EA source compatibility. Offline / Online Trading Simulator. Pivot Points Analyzer. Back testing on tick data only. Forward testing on live market data for 10 main pairs. Live tick data feed recording. Free download Back testing versus forward testing, what are benefits involved or are there none? Well if you asked most traders, you will get different viewpoints with. BTC: $13,465.25 ETH: $385.12 XRP: $0.23 Market Cap: $400B BTC Dominance: 62.50%. BTC: $13,465.25 ETH: $385.12 XRP: $0.23 Market Cap: $400B BTC Dominance: 62.50%. Advertise Publish. Home; News. Forex Cryptocurrency Regulation Announcements ... Forward performance testing is a simulation of actual trading and involves following the system's logic in a live market. It is also called paper trading since all trades are executed on paper ...

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NNFX Algo Forward Testing 6 months - Lessons learned

We went deep into backtesting months ago. And we just spoke last Thursday how important it is to do this part as efficiently as possible. Forward testing is ... Hi! One of my MOST important videos! In this video, I will share with you my 5 important "Lessons Learned" after 6 months of forward testing my NNFX algorithm! Hey, I have created several "tools ... Forex Robot Backtest Results vs. Forward Test Trading Results - Duration: 16:58. Autotrading Academy 4,932 views. 16:58. Expert Advisor - Expert Advisor Testing and Optimization - Duration: 8:30. ... Hi there, I am following the No Nonsense Forex methodology to create my NNFX Algorithm. Watch over my shoulder as I forward test a Forex system and discuss m... Hi! I post a video each trading day of what trades I take. You are welcome to follow along and look over my shoulder as I execute trades, discuss my rational and forward test the #NNFX algorithm ... Hi! I am forward testing a system and post videos of what trades I take. You are welcome to follow along and look over my shoulder as I execute trades, discuss my rational and forward test the # ... Hi! I am forward testing a NNFX Algorithm and posting videos each of what trades I take. You are welcome to follow along and look over my shoulder as I execute trades, discuss my rational as I ...

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